Scenario elements - memecon

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Scenario elements

The designing of the future requires a concrete conception of basic conditions. Scenario elements describe aspects of basic conditions. This includes objective information (numbers/data/facts) and subjective information (estimations/rumors/opinions). Participants of the scenario development collect and arrange together the information and achieve thereby a common understanding of the scenarios. In the following, each scenario can be further developed, for example with the description of the logical levels.

Scenario elements are organized into eight areas: corporation, business, people, technology, economy, ecology, society and government. The elements are divided in business-oriented elements (inner circle) and rather general elements (outer circle).

  • Corporation

covers aspects that constitute the organization. This includes above all strategy, values, organization, HR- and IT-system.

  • People

describes aspects, which concern the employees and partners. Among them management and leadership style, capabilities and manner as well as motivation.

  • Business

contains aspects that relate to the business model. This subsumes all deliverables and substitutes (i.e. products and services) as well as market (i.e. industries and business segments), competition, customers and suppliers.

  • Technology

consists of aspects, which include the available and used technical possibilities (i.e. tools, materials and insights). This comprehends functions and applications, innovation potentials, life cycles, maturity levels and availability.

  • Economy

consists of aspects that describe the general economic situation. This includes financial aspects (e.g. financing expenses, exchange rates), economic situation (e.g. economic cycle and situation) and resource availability.

  • Ecology

describes aspects that represent the environment-related situation. This consists of environmental guidelines, water availability and climate aspects.

  • Society

represents societal, social aspects. This contains demography, stability, culture, religion, ethics, education as well as social events (e.g. elections, revolutions).

  • Government

indicates aspects that are made available by respective national systems. It consists of laws, taxes and other administrative information.

Every element contains substantial information concerning the scenario. It’ll be distinguished in objective information (numbers/data/facts) and subjective information (estimations/rumors/opinions).

  • Numbers/data/facts

are proven, objectively determined, available and incontestable information that originate from several sources and is generally appreciated.

  • Estimations/rumors/opinions

are provable, subjective, not presentable and doubtable information that is not provable or described by doubtful sources and is not generally appreciated.

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