Scenario elements
The designing of the future requires a concrete conception of basic conditions. Scenario elements describe aspects of basic conditions. This includes objective information (numbers/data/facts) and subjective information (estimations/rumors/opinions). Participants of the scenario development collect and arrange together the information and reach a common understanding of the scenarios. In the following, each scenario can be further developed, for example, with the logical levels' description.
Scenario elements are organized into eight areas: corporation, business, people, technology, economy, ecology, society, and government. The parts are divided into business-oriented elements (the inner circle) and rather general elements (the outer circle).
- Corporation
covers aspects that constitute the group. This includes, above all, strategy, values, organization, HR- and IT-system.
- People
describes aspects, which concern the employees and partners. Among them, management and leadership style, capabilities, and manner as well as motivation.
- Business
contains aspects that relate to the business model. This subsumes all deliverables and substitutes (i.e., products and services) and market (i.e., industries and business segments), competition, customers, and suppliers.
- Technology
consists of aspects, including the available and used technical possibilities (i.e., tools, materials, and insights). This comprehends functions and applications, innovation potentials, life cycles, maturity levels, and availability.
- Economy
consists of aspects that describe the general economic situation. This includes financial factors (e.g., financing expenses, exchange rates), economic status (e.g., economic cycle and situation), and resource availability.
- Ecology
describes aspects that represent the environment-related situation. This consists of environmental guidelines, water availability, and climate aspects.
- Society
represents societal, social aspects. This contains demography, stability, culture, religion, ethics, education, and social events (e.g., elections, revolutions).
- Government
indicates aspects that are made available by respective national systems. It consists of laws, taxes, and other administrative information.
Every element contains important information concerning the scenario. It will be distinguished in objective information (numbers/data/facts) and subjective information (estimations/rumors/opinions).
- Numbers/data/facts
are proven, objectively determined, available, and incontestable information that originates from several sources and is generally appreciated.
- Estimations/rumors/opinions
are provable, subjective, not presentable, and doubtable information that is not provable or described by doubtful sources and is not generally appreciated.
Depending on the actual task, particular areas can be considered, especially without entirely leaving out the remaining areas.